Introduction

In this post, we'll delve into an interesting paper presented at the 2022 USENIX SECURITY SYMPOSIUM - "The Antrim County 2020 Election Incident". This paper has drawn considerable attention due to its analysis of the 2020 Election Incident in Antrim County, shedding new light on the issue.

Abstract of the Paper

In November 2020, Antrim County, Michigan published unofficial election results that misstated totals in the presidential race and other contests by up to several thousand votes. Antrim subsequently issued a series of corrections, and the certified presidential results were confirmed by a hand count. Nevertheless, Antrim was repeatedly cited by the former President as evidence of widespread fraud, and it remains a centerpiece of conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. At the request of the Michigan Secretary of State and Attorney General, I performed a forensic investigation of the incident. Using data from the election system, I precisely reproduce the major anomalies, explain their cause, and verify they have been corrected. However, I also uncover other errors affecting specific down-ballot contests that have not been corrected, despite the unusual attention focused on the results, one of which may have changed the outcome of a local contest. Based on this analysis, I refute false claims and disinformation about the incident, concluding that it was not the result of a security breach but rather a series of operator errors compounded by inadequate procedures and insufficiently defensive software design. These events offer lessons for election administration and highlight the value of rigorously investigating election technology incidents for enhancing accuracy and public trust.

Paper Link: https://www.usenix.org/conference/usenixsecurity22/presentation/halderman

Presentation Video:

This paper is derived from a report that the author produced as an expert witness under contract to the Michigan Department of Attorney General.

Report Link: https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/Antrim_720623_7.pdf

Analysis of the Paper

In this section, we'll take a closer look at the paper's main findings and arguments.

The paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the controversies surrounding the 2020 US presidential election, which was rife with unfounded allegations of voter fraud put forth by then-President Donald Trump and his affiliates. The core argument of the paper posits that these allegations were baseless, and the legitimacy of the election outcome was reinforced through meticulous audits and recounts.

The center of this controversy was Antrim County, Michigan, where on November 4, 2020, the initial results were revealed to have been inaccurately tabulated, causing a discrepancy of thousands of votes when compared to the following day's recount. This recount dramatically reversed the positions of Democratic candidate Biden and Republican candidate Trump, adding fuel to the controversy. Further attempts at resolution, including a recount two weeks later, didn't entirely clarify the situation.

In the aftermath, a Michigan court bestowed upon the Antrim County Special Operations Group (ASOG) the authority to conduct a forensic investigation. ASOG's ensuing report stated their belief that "the Dominion Voting System is intentionally and purposefully designed with inherent errors to create systemic fraud and influence election results." This report has since been repeatedly referred to by Trump's supporters as ostensible evidence of election fraud and formed the basis for over 50 subsequent lawsuits.

However, it later surfaced that ASOG's representative faced criticism for political bias. As a countermeasure, the Michigan Secretary of State commissioned an independent forensic investigation, led by J. Alex Halderman, a professor of computer science at the University of Michigan. Halderman's study aimed to refute ASOG's report by conducting a neutral, objective examination of the voting process, pinpointing the issues' causes, assessing their impact on the final vote, evaluating their potential recurrence, and proposing preventive measures for the future.

The initial report submitted to the state of Michigan spanned approximately 60 pages and drew the following conclusions:

1. The inaccuracies were rooted in human error rather than cyber interference or software malfunction.

2. The overall election result remained unaffected as the mistake was confined to the region in question.

3. The final result aligned seamlessly with that of an independent study conducted by the National Election Commission.

4. To avert similar future occurrences, the system must be bolstered and those involved in the voting process should undergo further training and education.

Halderman's conclusions were condensed into an 18-page document, "The Antrim County 2020 Election Incident: An Independent Forensic Investigation," and presented at the prestigious USENIX Security '22 Winter conference, where it was honored with the Distinguished Paper Award.

My Review and Opinions

From my perspective, this incident serves as a prominent illustration of the profound implications that digital forensics can wield in real-world scenarios. The capacity of digital forensics to dissect complex issues and establish concrete facts is underscored by the unfolding of events in Antrim County, thereby reinforcing its importance in the arena of electoral processes.

Drawing from the South Korean context, there was an instance when the National Election Commission enlisted the expertise of a digital forensic investigator. This decision, in my view, underscores the growing recognition of the integral role that digital forensics plays in safeguarding the precision, dependability, and equity of elections. It is a testament to the increasing need to incorporate robust and scientifically sound methods to maintain the integrity of electoral systems in the digital age.